The start of baseball season, more than any other sport, signifies optimism. The "everybody's in first place" mantra couple with the blooming of spring can't help but make the populous feel all bubbly. I woke up today with that feeling of good times. Not only was it the start of Spring Term at the O but the first day of baseball season. It took only a couple of hours for that feeling to wear off.
We are about 15 minutes from the first pitch at Safeco Field four and a half hours up I-5 from my dorm room and my optimism is gone. There is no hope for this year's Mariner team, a realization that I had resigned myself to weeks ago. It wasn't until today, when the games started to actually matter, that this feeling really punched me in the face. The rotation is a mess. Outside of King Felix, we basically have 4 fourth starters (Jarred Washburn, Horacio Ramirez, Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista). Seriously, who on that list is a legit #2 or, for that matter, a legit #3? Every fifth day when the King is unleashed could be a good day but, other than that, there is little hope.
The lineup is intriguing. Ichiro is gonna do his thang, as will Raul. There could be problems elsewhere. It's just a matter of time before Jose Guillen punches somebody. Jose Lopez has lost all semblance of power. Yuniesky Betancourt never had any. Beltre had a huge spring, which means he will have an equally futile summer. Richie Sexson will get his 35 homers and 100 RBI, but he will also strike out 200 times and hit .220. Johjima will be solid, but he has zero backup, meaning once, maybe twice a week the starting catcher can guarantee Mike Hargrove at least one collar in the lineup.
Sorry for the rush, but I've got to get back for first pitch, as if any of it matters. I may or may not get a title game preview up so let me just leave it at this: Florida is the better team. They have the swagger, the experience, and the horses to take this thing down, just like football. It should be an awesome game. If the M's win, maybe I will be in a good enough mood to enjoy it, though whether they win or not probably won't sway my decided pessimism regarding everything too much. Back with more later on tonight.
Monday, April 02, 2007
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Florida vs. UCLA Recap
Impressive. That's all that can be said about that performance by the defending champs. They kind of flaked out for the last six or seven minutes but other than that it was a supremely business-like victory.
Obviously the big story of the game was Aaron Afflalo. He picked up three early fouls and wasn't a factor at all until he started hitting shots in the last few minutes. It can be argued that they were questionable calls against Afflalo, but frankly I don't think it would have mattered. Brewer played a brilliant game on both ends and if Afflalo was in the game, he wouldn't have made up the difference. It was complete dominance. Al Horford was a manchild on the glass with 17 rebounds. Someone lit a fire under Noah in the second half and we saw that raw and uncontrollable emotion that is going to make him a lot of money. What shocked me was Humphrey getting open looks. I felt that Florida's guards would not have the types of games they did against Oregon because of UCLA's superior perimeter defense, but Brewer and Humphrey both had big games which ended up being the main difference.
It was clear with Afflalo out, UCLA had very few other scoring options and couldn't keep up with the Gators. They were fortunate to be down by only six at the half, and then Florida asserted its dominance and the game was over. The final margin is nowhere near indicative of how the game went in the second half. Florida was the better team, with or without Afflalo.
As far as the future pros, Brewer helped himself the most. His shot was on and his defense was superb as always. Afflalo's first extended playing time was early in the second half and Brewer frustrated him every time down the floor. His versatility is impressive. At times he got matched up against Collison on switches and was able to keep up with his quickness. There are a lot of guards who can't say that. Brewer also made a block on a fast break that displayed his outstanding athleticism. He is certainly a lottery pick. As far as Noah, I still don't necessarily see why he is a top five pick, but I love his fire. I just don't see how his game translates. He doesn't have a go-to offensive move, he can't shoot. His value is on defense and on the glass and I'm not sure that's enough to justify a lottery pick. I love Horford's game. As I said, his performance on the boards was outstanding, and he displays some developing offensive moves. I would rank the three Florida guys 1. Brewer 2. Horford 3. Noah. Afflalo could benefit from another year but I wouldn't blame him for coming out. He has a warrior's mentality but he can back it up on the offensive end, unlike Noah. His defense is solid. Today's game really isn't indicative of the season he has had.
Bottom line is the two best teams are moving on. Preview and prediction tomorrow.
Obviously the big story of the game was Aaron Afflalo. He picked up three early fouls and wasn't a factor at all until he started hitting shots in the last few minutes. It can be argued that they were questionable calls against Afflalo, but frankly I don't think it would have mattered. Brewer played a brilliant game on both ends and if Afflalo was in the game, he wouldn't have made up the difference. It was complete dominance. Al Horford was a manchild on the glass with 17 rebounds. Someone lit a fire under Noah in the second half and we saw that raw and uncontrollable emotion that is going to make him a lot of money. What shocked me was Humphrey getting open looks. I felt that Florida's guards would not have the types of games they did against Oregon because of UCLA's superior perimeter defense, but Brewer and Humphrey both had big games which ended up being the main difference.
It was clear with Afflalo out, UCLA had very few other scoring options and couldn't keep up with the Gators. They were fortunate to be down by only six at the half, and then Florida asserted its dominance and the game was over. The final margin is nowhere near indicative of how the game went in the second half. Florida was the better team, with or without Afflalo.
As far as the future pros, Brewer helped himself the most. His shot was on and his defense was superb as always. Afflalo's first extended playing time was early in the second half and Brewer frustrated him every time down the floor. His versatility is impressive. At times he got matched up against Collison on switches and was able to keep up with his quickness. There are a lot of guards who can't say that. Brewer also made a block on a fast break that displayed his outstanding athleticism. He is certainly a lottery pick. As far as Noah, I still don't necessarily see why he is a top five pick, but I love his fire. I just don't see how his game translates. He doesn't have a go-to offensive move, he can't shoot. His value is on defense and on the glass and I'm not sure that's enough to justify a lottery pick. I love Horford's game. As I said, his performance on the boards was outstanding, and he displays some developing offensive moves. I would rank the three Florida guys 1. Brewer 2. Horford 3. Noah. Afflalo could benefit from another year but I wouldn't blame him for coming out. He has a warrior's mentality but he can back it up on the offensive end, unlike Noah. His defense is solid. Today's game really isn't indicative of the season he has had.
Bottom line is the two best teams are moving on. Preview and prediction tomorrow.
G-Town vs. Ohio State: Second Half
Well, Greg Oden showed up in a big way. He wasn't overly dominant, but there was a clear difference in the game when he was in. Ohio State already had the advantage over the Hoyas without Oden, and his assertiveness was the icing on the cake that put the Buckeyes over the top. Conley wasn't as freakishly awesome in the second half, but he didn't need to be because of Oden's presence, who also noticeably affected Georgetown's offense. The backdoor cuts weren't there because Oden was there waiting.
Hibbert played an outstanding game when he was in, but the foul trouble caught up to him. Jeff Green simply did not show up. It is inexplicable for the Big East Player of the Year to get only five shots and nine points in the biggest game of his life. He should have demanded the ball to go through him on every possession when Hibbert was out. He needed to step up and carry his team but he didn't do it. His draft stock just took a hit in my opinion because this was a situation where he had to shine. Oden stepped up when he finally got on the floor, while Green was on the floor the whole time and wasn't heard from.
All that said, Ohio State was the better team. Their personnel was better and it turned out to be a terrible match-up for Georgetown, who had no answer for Conley's quickness. The Buckeyes are a more well rounded team in terms of overall talent, which was glaring.
Now, on to the rematch!
Hibbert played an outstanding game when he was in, but the foul trouble caught up to him. Jeff Green simply did not show up. It is inexplicable for the Big East Player of the Year to get only five shots and nine points in the biggest game of his life. He should have demanded the ball to go through him on every possession when Hibbert was out. He needed to step up and carry his team but he didn't do it. His draft stock just took a hit in my opinion because this was a situation where he had to shine. Oden stepped up when he finally got on the floor, while Green was on the floor the whole time and wasn't heard from.
All that said, Ohio State was the better team. Their personnel was better and it turned out to be a terrible match-up for Georgetown, who had no answer for Conley's quickness. The Buckeyes are a more well rounded team in terms of overall talent, which was glaring.
Now, on to the rematch!
G-Town vs. Ohio State: First Half
Well, I said foul trouble would be a huge issue for the big men. I also said Hibbert would be the one to get into foul trouble, and that Ohio State would be less affected because of their abundance of talent. I was right on some stuff, wrong on others.
Jeff Green needs to show up. If Hibbert picks up an early third, Green may have to carry the Hoyas offensively. The Buckeyes showed that they have other guys who can step up the scoring with Oden on the bench, but Hibbert means too much to Georgetown on the offensive end, much more than Oden does for OSU. Therefore, when Hibbert is out, the Hoyas are hurting. That said, the scoring is right where Georgetown wants it. They can't beat the Buckeyes in a track meet. This game will be decided in the 50s which exponentially improves the Hoyas chance at victory.
For Ohio State, Mike Conley did what Green could not. As Jim Nantz said, in his infinite wisdom, "Conley is the best player on the floor," and he was right. His 11 points were an unstoppable 11 points because nobody on G-Town can check him. If Oden comes back strong and stays out of foul trouble in the second half, this game is over.
Jeff Green needs to show up. If Hibbert picks up an early third, Green may have to carry the Hoyas offensively. The Buckeyes showed that they have other guys who can step up the scoring with Oden on the bench, but Hibbert means too much to Georgetown on the offensive end, much more than Oden does for OSU. Therefore, when Hibbert is out, the Hoyas are hurting. That said, the scoring is right where Georgetown wants it. They can't beat the Buckeyes in a track meet. This game will be decided in the 50s which exponentially improves the Hoyas chance at victory.
For Ohio State, Mike Conley did what Green could not. As Jim Nantz said, in his infinite wisdom, "Conley is the best player on the floor," and he was right. His 11 points were an unstoppable 11 points because nobody on G-Town can check him. If Oden comes back strong and stays out of foul trouble in the second half, this game is over.
Friday, March 30, 2007
The Eve of Judgement Day
Has it ever been okay to get this jacked up for the Final Four? Last year's Final Four was exciting for the sole reason that George Mason was in it. No one cared about Florida, UCLA, or LSU. All of the hype going in was for Mason even though everyone knew they had very little chance at winning the whole thing. This year is a totally different monster. It's hard to know where to start, but somehow it's all been covered. There's the rematch of last year's title game (though this year's matchup promises to be better), the meeting of big, big men, the return to prominence of one of the nation's most prestigious programs, and on and on and on, not to mention the emerging Billy Donavon-Kentucky storyline. It wouldn't be difficult to argue that these four teams are the best four teams in the country. Last year, it wouldn't have been difficult to argue that none of the Final Four teams were among the four best in the country.
That's what makes tomorrow so special. The best are taking on the best. The knock against the NCAA tournament is that it rarely crowns America's best team as champion. Instead, it basically hands the trophy to the pretty good team that gets hot at the right time. This year, the team that emerges with the title will be America's best college basketball team. I am way too jacked up for tomorrow. It's going to be hard to concentrate during my 18-mile run tomorrow because of what awaits me when I finish: the greatest Final Four of my lifetime. I'll have a full recap tomorrow.
That's what makes tomorrow so special. The best are taking on the best. The knock against the NCAA tournament is that it rarely crowns America's best team as champion. Instead, it basically hands the trophy to the pretty good team that gets hot at the right time. This year, the team that emerges with the title will be America's best college basketball team. I am way too jacked up for tomorrow. It's going to be hard to concentrate during my 18-mile run tomorrow because of what awaits me when I finish: the greatest Final Four of my lifetime. I'll have a full recap tomorrow.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
What will happen on Saturday: Part 2
Looking back on my last post, I realize that it came across as an endless rant about how fouls affect the play of big men, leading to a completely pointless conclusion that whether Hibbert, Oden, both, or neither get into foul trouble, Ohio State will win. Sorry for wasting you time, but trust me on the pick. Ohio State advances. Now on to the main event.
Florida vs. UCLA
Oh baby! This one has me excited. Really excited. I thought I was excited after Blair Phillips blocked the game-winning field goal attempt against Oklahoma, and I was, but that wasn't as prolonged as this one. I am jacked for this game.
On UCLA's side, they are on a serious role. Although the Kansas game was relatively close, it was clear who was the better team. This UCLA team is better than last year's. Aaron Afflalo has emerged as one of the best players in America. Darren Collison is the glue and he is better suited to Ben Howland basketball (or "BenBall" as some refer to it as) than Jordan Farmar was. This team was the most consistent team in the country up until their last two games leading up to the Dance (losses to Washington and Cal). For the entire year I was touting the Bruins as the best team in America, even after they came to Eugene and left with an L. On Florida's side, they have the championship swagger and the experience. However, I think the experience cancels out because UCLA was here last year also. It was an advantage up until now against Jackson State, Purdue, Butler, and Oregon but UCLA has been there, done that. As far as the swagger goes, UCLA has it just as much as Florida. The Gators are not playing with the attitude that they did during last year's tournament, and UCLA is coming off a dominant performance against the uber-talented Jayhawks.
So how do these teams match-up? Florida beat Oregon with solid perimeter play. Green and Humphrey played outstanding and were knocking down their shots. However, UCLA is the best perimeter defensive team in America. They will not allow Florida's guards to get the looks they did against Oregon, who inexplicably continued to go under ball screens. UCLA won't do that. Florida will have to win this game with Noah, Horford, and the rest of their big men. They have been good in the tournament, but nowhere near as good as they can be. Maybe they don't have the same fire as they did last year. Maybe they are on the verge of completely exploding for huge games in Atlanta. The bottom line is they haven't played like they can, and they are going to have to step up big time to beat the Bruins. Florida's advantage is down low and they will need to utilize that to win because, as good as UCLA is, they have nothing for Noah and Horford. Matta, Aboya, and Mbah-Moute are serviceable but not on their level.
In my bracket, I have Florida winning this game (have I mentioned that I picked all four Final Four teams?) and I am going to stick with, though I am nowhere near as confident in the pick as I was at the beginning of the tournament. I love where UCLA is at and I haven't been overly impressed with how Florida has played thus far. Frankly, if I hadn't filled out a bracket I might pick UCLA in this one. But I'm sticking to my guns and going with Florida. I think Noah and Horford will have solid games. It will be close all the way to the end. As I said a couple of days ago, UCLA games will always be close because of the Bruins' style of play. Florida will have just enough, and they will move on to face Ohio State in the title game.
Yup, Florida-Ohio State. Just like football. Obviously, I am not going to make a pick for that match-up because it isn't even official yet. What's the point in making predictions for a game that may or may not happen? Yeah, I know, ESPN did it with their remarkably pointless fictitious college football playoff but I'm not as cool as them so I can't do it. Just take it to the bank. Florida-Ohio State.
Florida vs. UCLA
Oh baby! This one has me excited. Really excited. I thought I was excited after Blair Phillips blocked the game-winning field goal attempt against Oklahoma, and I was, but that wasn't as prolonged as this one. I am jacked for this game.
On UCLA's side, they are on a serious role. Although the Kansas game was relatively close, it was clear who was the better team. This UCLA team is better than last year's. Aaron Afflalo has emerged as one of the best players in America. Darren Collison is the glue and he is better suited to Ben Howland basketball (or "BenBall" as some refer to it as) than Jordan Farmar was. This team was the most consistent team in the country up until their last two games leading up to the Dance (losses to Washington and Cal). For the entire year I was touting the Bruins as the best team in America, even after they came to Eugene and left with an L. On Florida's side, they have the championship swagger and the experience. However, I think the experience cancels out because UCLA was here last year also. It was an advantage up until now against Jackson State, Purdue, Butler, and Oregon but UCLA has been there, done that. As far as the swagger goes, UCLA has it just as much as Florida. The Gators are not playing with the attitude that they did during last year's tournament, and UCLA is coming off a dominant performance against the uber-talented Jayhawks.
So how do these teams match-up? Florida beat Oregon with solid perimeter play. Green and Humphrey played outstanding and were knocking down their shots. However, UCLA is the best perimeter defensive team in America. They will not allow Florida's guards to get the looks they did against Oregon, who inexplicably continued to go under ball screens. UCLA won't do that. Florida will have to win this game with Noah, Horford, and the rest of their big men. They have been good in the tournament, but nowhere near as good as they can be. Maybe they don't have the same fire as they did last year. Maybe they are on the verge of completely exploding for huge games in Atlanta. The bottom line is they haven't played like they can, and they are going to have to step up big time to beat the Bruins. Florida's advantage is down low and they will need to utilize that to win because, as good as UCLA is, they have nothing for Noah and Horford. Matta, Aboya, and Mbah-Moute are serviceable but not on their level.
In my bracket, I have Florida winning this game (have I mentioned that I picked all four Final Four teams?) and I am going to stick with, though I am nowhere near as confident in the pick as I was at the beginning of the tournament. I love where UCLA is at and I haven't been overly impressed with how Florida has played thus far. Frankly, if I hadn't filled out a bracket I might pick UCLA in this one. But I'm sticking to my guns and going with Florida. I think Noah and Horford will have solid games. It will be close all the way to the end. As I said a couple of days ago, UCLA games will always be close because of the Bruins' style of play. Florida will have just enough, and they will move on to face Ohio State in the title game.
Yup, Florida-Ohio State. Just like football. Obviously, I am not going to make a pick for that match-up because it isn't even official yet. What's the point in making predictions for a game that may or may not happen? Yeah, I know, ESPN did it with their remarkably pointless fictitious college football playoff but I'm not as cool as them so I can't do it. Just take it to the bank. Florida-Ohio State.
What will happen on Saturday
As I have made abundantly clear, I picked all four Final Four teams correctly. I have been flaunting my bracket prediction prowess about for the past couple of days, and as a result I believe that my predictions for Saturdays games are valid. You should listen. What I say in the ensuing paragraphs is gold. Treat it as such.
Georgetown vs. Ohio State
The sexyness of this matchup cannot be overestimated. Greg Oden and Roy Hibbert may be the most legit centers in the country. In college, a lot of teams play 6-8, 6-9, or 6-10 guys at center because that's all they've got. These guys are centers and will be at the next level. The key here will be foul trouble. Bill Simmons, whether you like him or not, made a great point a couple of weeks ago regarding foul trouble in college basketball. Though the proportion of game minutes to fouls is the same in college as in the NBA (1 foul for every 8 minutes), foul trouble is much more of an issue at the college level. If a guy gets two first half fouls in college, he is crippled for not only the rest of the half (if he isn't on the bench) but for the second half as well because a third foul would be a death wish. In the NBA, a guy can get three first half fouls and still be far from serious trouble. Frankly, a pro isn't in trouble until he gets five, and even that can be argued because getting a sixth foul is difficult. The point is that one of these guys will get into foul trouble. The question is: which one? My money is on Hibbert, for a couple of reasons. First, Oden, though he has gotten into foul trouble a lot in the tournament, is a fabulous defender and is adept at avoiding cheap fouls that plague big men. If he commits a foul, it's a legit foul, not a nickel-dimer. Hibbert is more likely to commit a foul he doesn't need to, like clobbering a guy on a drive trying to block a shot instead of simply trying to affect the shot like Oden does. Also, since Jeff Green is option #1 for the Hoyas, Hibbert won't be asked to do a ton on offense. On the other hand, the Buckeye offense is better when Oden gets touches. Hibbert will have to play more one-on-one defense and hence will see more foul possibilities. There you go. I have inconclusively proven that Hibbert will get into foul trouble.
However, even if Oden gets into foul trouble, the Buckeyes might still be in good shape. Remember, they were a top five team before Oden was playing. They went toe-to-toe with Carolina at Carolina. If Oden sits, there is still enough talent to stay in the game. Throughout the tournament, the Buckeyes have been solid when Oden has been in foul trouble. Jeff Green is a great player, and I would love to see him in a Blazer uniform next year, but he would be asked to carry G-Town with Hibbert on the bench, while the Buckeyes have a handful of guys who can pick up the scoring if Oden is out. Where Oden's presence would really be missed would be on the defensive end, but if OSU can make it an up and down game without Oden on the floor, that would cancel out Oden's absence.
I like Ohio State to win. They have more talent up and down the roster if one of their studs goes cold. Foul trouble amongst the big men will be a big issue, but Ohio State is more prepared to deal with it if Oden is out. Take it to the bank! OSU in the title game!
Florida-UCLA later.
Georgetown vs. Ohio State
The sexyness of this matchup cannot be overestimated. Greg Oden and Roy Hibbert may be the most legit centers in the country. In college, a lot of teams play 6-8, 6-9, or 6-10 guys at center because that's all they've got. These guys are centers and will be at the next level. The key here will be foul trouble. Bill Simmons, whether you like him or not, made a great point a couple of weeks ago regarding foul trouble in college basketball. Though the proportion of game minutes to fouls is the same in college as in the NBA (1 foul for every 8 minutes), foul trouble is much more of an issue at the college level. If a guy gets two first half fouls in college, he is crippled for not only the rest of the half (if he isn't on the bench) but for the second half as well because a third foul would be a death wish. In the NBA, a guy can get three first half fouls and still be far from serious trouble. Frankly, a pro isn't in trouble until he gets five, and even that can be argued because getting a sixth foul is difficult. The point is that one of these guys will get into foul trouble. The question is: which one? My money is on Hibbert, for a couple of reasons. First, Oden, though he has gotten into foul trouble a lot in the tournament, is a fabulous defender and is adept at avoiding cheap fouls that plague big men. If he commits a foul, it's a legit foul, not a nickel-dimer. Hibbert is more likely to commit a foul he doesn't need to, like clobbering a guy on a drive trying to block a shot instead of simply trying to affect the shot like Oden does. Also, since Jeff Green is option #1 for the Hoyas, Hibbert won't be asked to do a ton on offense. On the other hand, the Buckeye offense is better when Oden gets touches. Hibbert will have to play more one-on-one defense and hence will see more foul possibilities. There you go. I have inconclusively proven that Hibbert will get into foul trouble.
However, even if Oden gets into foul trouble, the Buckeyes might still be in good shape. Remember, they were a top five team before Oden was playing. They went toe-to-toe with Carolina at Carolina. If Oden sits, there is still enough talent to stay in the game. Throughout the tournament, the Buckeyes have been solid when Oden has been in foul trouble. Jeff Green is a great player, and I would love to see him in a Blazer uniform next year, but he would be asked to carry G-Town with Hibbert on the bench, while the Buckeyes have a handful of guys who can pick up the scoring if Oden is out. Where Oden's presence would really be missed would be on the defensive end, but if OSU can make it an up and down game without Oden on the floor, that would cancel out Oden's absence.
I like Ohio State to win. They have more talent up and down the roster if one of their studs goes cold. Foul trouble amongst the big men will be a big issue, but Ohio State is more prepared to deal with it if Oden is out. Take it to the bank! OSU in the title game!
Florida-UCLA later.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)