For those who think recruiting doesn't matter...

The arguments on this issue go both ways, but I stand firmly on the recruiting-absolutely matters side.

That isn’t to say that recruiting is an exact science. As we’ve been told over and over again, recruiting is perhaps the most inexact science. It’s infinitely more inexact than the crapshoot known as the NFL Draft (and that’s saying something). There are so many variables when it comes to college football recruiting. The kid may be a total moron. He may not be able to read (and, frankly, who is going to put it past Bobby Bowden to recruit an illiterate?). He may not qualify academically; he may not be able to handle the academic demands of college once he gets there (that is, assuming he even goes to class). He may not be able to handle the pressure that comes with being a big-time college athlete who has to deal with all of the expectations that come with the “prestigious” 5-star rating. Maybe he gets on campus and expects everything to be handed to him. As a result, he doesn’t work hard, gets fat, and ends up transferring to some place like Idaho State (I’m talking to you, Aaron Klovas).

And, of course, there’s always the possibility that the kid may not be any good. Sure he tore up guys who had a tenth of his strength and a tenth of his speed in high school. Sure he runs a good forty, and he can bench press 185 all day. But guess what? Everybody in big-time college football fits those criteria. Duck fans know all to well the case of current wideout Cameron Colvin. He had 5-stars. He attended powerhouse De La Salle high school. He announced his intention to attend Oregon on ESPN. He was the gem of arguably Mike Bellotti’s best recruiting. 54 career catches later and he is heading into his senior season looking to salvage whatever he can from a career that was once so promising but is now so disappointing. This was a guy ranked ahead of Calvin Johnson, ahead of Marshawn Lynch, ahead of Dwayne Jarret, ahead of Brian Brohm.

Sometimes, they get it wrong. That’s all well and good. I’m not here to argue that trying to evaluate eighteen year olds is a perfected art. But those of you who say, “Recruiting doesn’t matter,” take a look at Rivals.com’s last couple of top 100 lists. There may be some names you don’t recognize, like Whitney Lewis (#3 overall player in 2003), or Fred Rouse (#5 overall player in 2005. However, there are also quite a few that you probably do recognize. How about Vincent Young (#1 player in 2002), or Reggie Bush (#2 player in 2003), or Adrian Peterson (#1 player in 2004). The point is that there will always be the misses, just like Todd Marinovich or Ryan Leaf. However, the majority of the time, the recruiting rankings are right.

Some people wonder how USC has grown into the premier program in college football. The answer is recruiting. The answer is that Pete Carroll can go out and literally get any high school prospect that he wants. USC has had the Rivals.com #1 recruiting class each of the last three years, and the year before that they were #3. There are numerous college coaches who I’d rather draw up a game plan, but there is no other coach who I’d rather have in a kid’s living room trying to convince him to come to my school than Carroll. He brings in the best talent and they win games. They just had a rebuilding year in which they went 11-2 and won a Rose Bowl. That was a disappointing year. That’s what recruiting can do. It can raise a program to a point where a Rose Bowl victory over the winningest program in college football history is a ho-hum end to a bummer year.

Remember that Texas Longhorns team that defeated the aforementioned Trojans in the 2006 Rose Bowl to capture the national championship? Four years prior, Mack Brown hauled in what some recruiting experts considered to be the best recruiting class in the history of college football. It was a class that included Vince Young, Justin Blalock, Aaron Harris, Kasey Studdard, Aaron Ross, Rodrique Wright, and Selvin Young. All were highly touted recruits who were a part of the temporary halting of the Trojan dynasty. It took the arguably the greatest recruiting class ever to knock off the greatest recruiter ever.

So for those of you who really truly believe that recruiting is completely irrelevant and believe that Ron Powlus was part of a trend rather than an anomaly, take a look at history because it never lies. Good teams are good because they recruit good players. There are always going to be players who slip through the cracks. There are always going to be the late bloomers who develop in a program. That’s the nature of all walks of life. Nothing is exact. I’d want a guy with an MBA from Harvard in my boardroom any day ahead of a guy who all of a sudden realizes that he has the business gene, just like I’d take a class of 5-star studs ahead of a bunch of “sleepers” every single year.

Sharkface done with pigskin

Jeff Samardzija will officially not be an NFL wide receiver, electing instead to sign a five-year deal with the Chicago Cubs.

Not too much of a shock. From what I have heard, he has a very promising baseball career ahead of him. Getting $8 million of guaranteed money probably made the decision quite a bit easier, although he would probably say that it "wasn't about the money" or some crap like that. It's possible that it wasn't about the money. He would have been able to make about that much as a first-round draft pick. However, being an NFL player is almost as bad as, well, being an NFL coach. It's year-around, all-day, everyday. These days, the NFL consumes the lives of all who are associated with it. By choosing baseball, Sharkface is making the sane choice. Even if it means 10-hour bus rides for the next couple of years until he hits the bigs, it also means pitching once every five days in the summer time with very little pressure seeing as that the Cubs have invested $8 million dollars in this kid. It isn't as if he is giving up a guaranteed NFL career for the possibility of a career of low-paying minor league gigs.

On the plus side for football fans, it means we won't have to see that ugly mug of his for at least a year or two. For those who don't follow baseball at all, you won't ever have to see it again!

Where do we go from here?

Why is the path unclear?

Gus Mal-gone isn't the only offensive coordinator who is looking for greener pastures. However, I would venture to say that there aren't too many Duck fans who are heartbroken over Gary Crowton's departure. The offense was awful by the end of the year. Dennis Dixon had no semblance of confidence. The talent on the field was not being taken advantage of.

The question now becomes: what now? Bellotti apparently is going to stick with the spread. You don't need to examine this article too carefully to read between the lines.

And as Bellotti vowed to "move quickly" to find a new coordinator, his biggest offensive star, running back Jonathan Stewart, said he is eager to see what changes are in store. Stewart said he would welcome more traditional sets, such as an I-formation, along with the spread-out style.

"I'm always open to that idea -- all running backs are, really," he said. "Whatever we do, we have to be consistent with it."

"Jonathan is a tough tailback, and between the tackles, he's unbelievable," Leaf said. "I mean, if you can give him the ball there, I don't think it would be a negative."

There was no consistent passing game in the second half of the season. The spread was good while it lasted. However, the Ducks have enough talent to employ a more pro-style attack with J-Stew getting about 25 carries per game. As long as Andy Ludwig isn't the offensive coordinator, the offense should be just as effective.

For those who haven't heard.....

Mitch Mustain has been granted permission to leave Arkansas. Pretty much saw this one coming after Gus Malzahn decided to join BFF Todd Graham at Tulsa. Does this mean that Mustain will be a Golden 'Cane as well? That remains to be seen, but for my money it will be either there or possibly Michigan, Notre Dame, or Tennessee, which were three schools that he also considered before committing, de-committing, then committing again to Arkansas. Now we'll have to wait and see what happens to the other current Springdalers (Ben Cleveland and Andrew Norman) who also followed Malzahn to the Razorbacks. This thing has officially gotten out of hand. Before all of this hullabaloo, Arkansas was a legit preseason top ten. Don't get me wrong, they will still be good next year with Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Marcus Monk, and Casey Dick back, but one has to wonder how much all of this turmoil will mess with the current players. The loss of Mustain hurts because he was a star in the making, while we may have seen the best of what Casey Dick has to offer. All of this craziness will certainly affect their status in the Autzen Zoo's post-recruiting top 25 which will be out in February.

Oh my holy God!

Wow. This one pretty much writes itself. Seriously, it was bad enough when Ronny tried to play quarterback, but now he wants to coach it? That bang you heard was the nail being driven into the coffin of Jimmy Clausen's career.

Draft Declaration Day Noodle Scratchers

Sure there are the locks like Adrian Peterson, Dwayne Jarrett, and Marshawn Lynch who would be dumb not to do it. But there are also those who have no business even asking for copies of the declaration papers. Here are some of the intriguing early entrants into the glorified meat sale known as the NFL Draft.

Micheal Bush, Louisville: I guess we are going to have to drag out the "Willis McGahee Comparison Counter" again. My tally is at two (both from Sportscenter) and I'm setting the over/under for 100 by the end of ESPN's draft day coverage. If he stayed healthy, he would be a top ten pick. NFL execs are going to be scrutinizing that broken leg so much that they'll have to watch their backs for molestation charges. If all is well, he will still go in the first round. However, with the benefit of a medical redshirt, he would have been a lock in the top 5 with another year, and possibly a national championship run, at the 'Ville.
Colt Brennan, Hawaii: This is going to be interesting. Brennan is basically holding the torch for all quarterbacks at Hawaii, Texas Tech, New Mexico State, and any other school that ends up running a "pass fist pass second ask questions later" offense. We never heard from Kliff Kingsbury, BJ Symons, or Timmy Chang after they graduated (at least not yet). Was he a product of the system, or a genuine stud? PROVE IT SON!!!!
Ted Ginn, Jr., The Ohio State: Seriously, did I miss the "Ted Ginn Train"? Somebody is going to take him in the first round but I just don't get it. You want a number one receiver with a first round pick but it can easily be argued that he wasn't The Ohio State's number one receiver. I guess his combination of Devin Hester return skills and Steve Smith possibilities at wideout will be enough to risk it, and it was certainly worth it for him to come out, but I would tag Ginn as the first member of the "Bust Watch List".
Brandon Jackson, Nebraska: This is an odd one. There is no truth to the rumor that there is even money on the Broncos making Jackson their third round pick ala Maurice Clarett. He's a third down back in the NFL at best and even if he went back to Big Red for another year with Bill Callahan, he would have been a mid-round pick at best in 2008. This draft has some stud running backs. Jackson ain't one of them.
Greg Olson, Miami: Duck fans will understand this reference. Olson's junior year was like Tim Day's senior year. Big things were expected from this kid coming into the season but he just wasn't the same TE that he was the previous year. If he can find whatever it was he lost between year's two and three, he will be a solid NFL tight end. Otherwise, another year at the "U" with a new coaching staff and more experience at quarterback would have done wonders for his draft stock headed into 2008.
Sidney Rice, South Carolina: Damn! If he came back for his junior year he would have been an absolute stud in his third year under Spurrier. I would have liked to have seen him stay another season because he might have been the best receiver in the country, and also because I have a bit of a man crush on the Ol' Ball Coach. That said, I would take him ahead of Ginn.
Danny Ware, Georgia: Is this kid serious? He was like the third best back on his own team! To say he could have used another year is like saying K-Fed could have used talent. Someone is going to have to fall truly, madly, deeply in love with some aspect of his game to use an actual draft pick on him (yes, that was a Savage Garden reference).
Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech: Okay, so this wasn't a surprise at all and he will be a top 3 pick. I just want to take advantage of any opportunity to talk about how awesome Calvin Johnson is. He has been the most talented receiver in the country for two years and is, apparently, an equally good guy. This guy is going to Pro Bowls. Lots of them. And to think that he did all he did at Tech with Reggie Freakin' Ball as his quarterback. That's a handicap that can effectively double all of his stats.

Malzahn jumping ship

According to ESPN's Joe Shad, Gus Malzahn is leaving Arkansas to join Todd Graham's staff at Tulsa as co-offensive coordinator.
Of all the Springdale imports who might leave Arkansas, I didn't think Malzahn would be one of them. However, I guess we should have seen this coming. The parents are pissed that the Razorbacks won't throw the ball, Damian Williams (one of the Springdalers) has transferred to USC, and rumors are that he won't be the last to tranfer out of Houston Nutt's program. Maybe Malzahn saw the writing on the wall. That's all well and good. It's natural for a guy to go somewhere where he'll be appreciated. But let's look at this a little more closely. He is leaving an SEC school loaded with young talent coming off a ten-win season, and he is heading to Tulsa which is, well, Tulsa. Not only that, but he's going to be a CO-offensive coordinator. It's hard to know what that means in this day in age when the title a coach has may or may not truly describe what he actually does (example: Bobby Bowden is listed as the HEAD COACH at Florida State). Whatever the case, if Malzahn is leaving the SEC for C-USA, the situation at Arkansas must be more freaked out than any of us think, so freaked out that he would be willing to leave his home-state school for TULSA!! As far as the future of the Arkansas program, this basically means that Mitch Mustain is outta there, whether it be for Tulsa (though Mitch's mommy says there is no truth to the rumor that Malzahn and Mustain are "tied at the hip"). All of the other Springdalers are probably going to explore options elsewhere as well because, let's face it, they went to Arkansas because of Malzahn. This is all so exciting! It's better than Passions, way better than Rosie vs. Trump. It blows Belichick vs. Mangini out of the water. Keep your eye on this freak show as the next couple of weeks pass because there could be some serious shake-ups in Razorback Nation.

The Gullibility of Cardinal Nation

“Hehe. I can’t believe they bought it!”

So Bobby Petrino has left Louisville. Not shocking. Why isn't it shocking? Because Petrino had one foot out the door the minute he set one foot IN the door at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. At times it seemed as though he had set a goal to interview for every single head coaching position, college or pro, in America. After he flew in a private jet and interviewed for the War Eagle job while Tommy Tuberville was still their coach, did anyone really believe that Petrino was in it for the long-haul at the 'Ville? No, Petrino leaving is not shocking. What is shocking is the fact that Cardinal fans are up in arms, feeling "embarrased" and "betrayed". Of all the fan bases in the country, Louisville's should be the one that lets this series of events pass over them like a Reggie Ball incompletion over the middle. Why does it even faze them? Remember the John L. Smith fiasco? He left at freakin' HALFTIME!!!!! OF A BOWL GAME!!!! TO MICHIGAN STATE!!!! All three of those facts are absurd. After experiencing one of the strangest head coaching swaps in college football history, why should it surprise any Louisville fan that Bobby Petrino, who has been on the lookout for bigger and better things ever since his nameplate hit his office door at the Trager Center, would leave for an NFL gig with an organization not called the Oakland Raiders. It didn't help that Petrino has been called an offensive genius whose play-calling prowess had him pegged as an obvious future NFL head man, praise that only served to inflate his already massive. Does Cardinal Nation feel betrayed because just a year ago Petrino stated that Louisville was "where he wanted to be" and that he wanted to continue to build the program after signing a 10-year contract extension? Were they living under a rock when Nick Saban took the Roll Tide job after categorically denying any interest in a one-way ticket to Tuscaloosa? Yeah, Saban lied. Many times. It shouldn't have been difficult to read between the lines in this situation. Petrino has been constantly dabbling in other jobs, he won a conference title and a BCS bowl game, NFL jobs were opening up, and it had been almost a year since Petrino almost left so he was WAAAAYYYY overdue. Did they seriously think that since he made those comments, it meant he would never-ever-ever-in-a-million-years-for-any-amount-of-money-anywhere-in-the-world leave? It was just a matter of time. What better time than the present? So, let's review. Petrino didn't want to be at Lousville. He is a ready-made NFL head coach. An NFL team with an opening comes calling. He takes the job. A fanbase that has already been left at the alter once is shocked and appalled that lightning has struck twice. Petrino leaving is about as shocking and appalling as the news that Neil Patrick Harris is gay. In other words, not at all.

Welcome to The Autzen Zoo

It may seem a strange time to be kicking off a college football blog seeing as that the season just ended. Fact is, I have been counting down the days to the end of the college football season so that I can actually start the blog. The only thing more random than starting a blog at the end of the college football season would be to start one dead smack in the middle of it. One advantage of starting it now is that I have about 8 months to hype up everything about the upcoming 2007 season. By the time week one rolls around, I will be lightheaded from excitement. Hopefully, you will be too. This isn't to say that every single post will be about college football. There will be ample opportunity to touch on other aspects of the sports world. However, I live for college football and that is where the majority of the time will be spent.
As time goes on, I will probably figure out some regular features that will appear on a weekly basis but at this point I am just going to wing it. I have already decided that we will be previewing every single team in the lead-up to next season in alphabetical order. So all of you Florida Atlantic fans that feel slighted by the media that insists on only covering relavent programs, I promise that you will get time here. This will likely begin during spring football when it becomes clear how each team will be taking shape. Until then, I will look at the coaching carousel that we are in the middle of, some recruiting, some opinions about the 2006 season and their implications for next year, and whatever else I can think of.
As you can tell by the title of the blog and the fact that I live in Eugene, I am a life-long Duck fan and current student at the University of Oregon. This does not mean that every single post will be about Duck football. It does not mean that there will be a strong bias towards everything Oregon or everything Pac-10. Quite the contrary. I get plenty of that living right in the middle of it, so it will be quite refreshing to touch on the rest of the football world. By the way, if any Oklahoma Sooner fan is reading this, yes you guys got screwed when you came to Autzen. The otherwordly level of raw emotion and joy that I felt at the end of that game was like nothing I have ever felt but as time went on, I came to accept the fact that we didn't really win. Sorry about that. Anyway, get ready for college football and a lot of it. Come back often because the posts will hopefully be regular unless I get arrested for a terrorist plot because I Googled "Iran" when I actually meant to type in "I ran" because I wanted the lyrics to A Flock Of Seagulls' 80s classic. If that happens, I will let you know before I am taken into custody. Otherwise, enjoy The Autzen Zoo.