The Divine Secrets of filling out a bracket

There is no magic potion or special secrets to filling out brackets. A lot of it is just a crap shoot. Obviously nobody had George Mason in the Final Four last year. In fact, very few people probably had LSU and Florida in the Final Four. This thing is damn near impossible to really predict. However, as a two-time winner of Oregon School for the Deaf's bracket pool (my mom works there and she always let me fill out her bracket) I deem myself qualified to pass along some things that I look for when filling out my Tourney bracket.

1. Damage Control. Nobody is going to pick every game right. Not me and, I sorry to be the one to break this, not you. The key is damage control. Everybody tries to look for the big upsets, the bracket busters, the next George Mason. The problem with that is what if you pick a 14 over a 3 because you have unequivicably identified the obvious upset but then that 3 not only wins but goes on to the Final Four or the Elite Eight? Your bracket is screwed! Stay with the safe picks because it will benefit you down the line when those people who went for the upsets have nobody left passed the Sweet 16. That's not to say that you shouldn't pick upsets. Hell, I have VCU beating Duke, ODU beating Butler, Creighton beating Nevada. Just don't try to do something stupid. Take the prudent route.

2. Who's hot? This is an obvious one. If a team is peaking going into the tourney, stick with them. That's why Georgetown is the hot pick this year. They are playing maybe the best ball in the country. Don't go against them just because everyone is going for them. If they are hot, go with it. That's why I have G-Town, Florida, and Ohio State in Atlanta. They all won their conference tournaments and they are all playing well. I also have Oregon in the Elite Eight as a Hot Team/Homer pick as well as Texas. These teams are hot. Go with 'em.

3. Let the stars come out. Make sure a team has a star player who can carry them if the rest of the team isn't producing. In the Big Dance, the Big Stars come out. This is why I have Texas in the Elite Eight. Would Texas be sniffing a 4 seed, would they have even been in those games with Kansas if not for Kevin Durant? No. They would be an 8 or 9 but nowhere near a 4. Marquette loses in the first round because their star, Dominic James, is playing like crap. Memphis doesn't make it out of the Sweet 16 because, although they are talented, they will lose to the star power/home court advantage that Texas A & M will bring with Acie Law in San Antonio. Let the stars guide you, not blind you.

4. Coaching, coaching, coaching. Look for good coaches with history of success in the tournament. This is one reason why I was hesitant with the Texas pick. Rick Barnes can't coach worth crap but the star power/hotness that the Hook 'Ems bring to the table outweighs the ineptitude on the sidelines. I have UCLA in the Final Four because they may be the best coached team in America. Plus, they don't have to leave Californ-Eye-Ay until Atlanta. If Michigan State were a little more talented, I would pick them to go far. Tom Izzo has made 3 Final Fours and an Elite Eight. Last year was an aberation. I have them beating Marquette in an intriguing 8-9 game and would have them going further if there was more talent on that team. If a team has a coach, they have a chance. That winning attitude and mentality that guys like Howland and Izzo bring rubs off on the players.

5. Balance. For some reason, people have come to the conclusion that guardplay wins in March. I stopped falling for that in 2002 when Your Oregon Ducks, with arguably the best backcourt in the country (Luke Ridnour, Freddie Jones, Luke Jackson) got outrebounded by about 1000-5 in the Elite Eight to the Nick Collison led Kansas Jayhawks. This year, the Ducks once again have a great backcourt, better than Florida's, but they wouldn't have a 9 year olds chance at Neverland Ranch against the Gators thanks to Joe Noah and Al Horford. The big guys have to show up too. Don't fall for the "just guards" theory. If that were the case, Virginia Tech would be a lock for the Final Four. USC would be in the Elite Eight. Just keep it balanced.

As you can see, there are numerous contradictions in these theories. I have UCLA in the Final Four even though they lost their last two (not hot). I have Duke losing in the first round despite having Coach K (good coaching). I have Texas beating UNC even though you could argue that the star factor cancels out due to Carolina's depth, and Roy Williams is clearly a better coach than Rick Barnes. The point is, as I said at the top, there is no perfect formula. There are no magic theories. This is what I look for. It may not be what you look for. Whatever works, trust it. Go with it. Feel it. That being said, we'll all be tearing up our brackets by about 1 PM Thursday afternoon so what does it matter?